"Getting
An Even Chance With The Odds."
By Belinda Levez
The ancient Greeks, experts in many branches
of mathematics, failed to recognise the connection between gambling
and maths. Instead they relied on Hermes the god of gambling
for luck. When a pair of dice was thrown they thought all numbers
had an equal chance. Thanks to the calculations of Blaise Pascal
in 1654, today’s craps players know that a seven is the
most likely score. Unfortunately so too do gambling operators.
They use computers to calculate odds ensuring they give themselves
huge profits. However even with modern technology, the gambling
operators can be as clueless as the ancient Greeks.
In 1991, British bookmakers found themselves
in the rough with the odds they offered on golf betting. It was
two industry insiders, a pair of bookmakers, who discovered that
the odds offered for a hole-in-one were ridiculously high. They
studied the statistics for European golf tournaments and found
that holes-in-one were becoming increasingly common due to more
skilful players. They expected to get odds of around 2/1 for a
hole-in-one. However, when they checked the prices offered, they
found that odds of around 20/1 and as high as 100/1 were quoted.
Realising they were on to a winner, the pair gave up work and
travelled the country placing bets. They staked around $40,000
and won over $700,000 before their coup was discovered and the
bookmakers drastically reduced the odds. Golf is unlikely to provide
punters with such a bonanza again but it could happen with another
sport.
Casino operators thought they had the advantage
on blackjack. A trio of Americans proved them wrong. In 1956,
Roger Baldwin developed the Optimum Strategy, which, Julian Braun
further adapted. By 1962, Edward Thorp had invented the first
card counting techniques. A combination of basic strategy and
card counting gives players the edge. Although casinos knew that
their profits were in danger, instead of adjusting the odds, they
tried to make it harder for these winning techniques to be used.
They even blundered by introducing more decks of cards. Thorpe
proved that this made card counting more profitable. Nowadays
casinos bar suspected card counters.
Special offers are often worthy of attention.
When Blackjack was first introduced to American casinos it wasn’t
a very popular game. To attract business casinos were offering
10/1 for blackjack made with either the jack of clubs or jack
of spades. Nowadays they pay a mere 2/1.
Horse racing also provided punters with an unexpected
bonus. Tricast bets, where punters must predict the first, second
and third past the post weren’t particularly popular. To
encourage punters to make this bet, British bookmakers offered
a 33 per cent bonus for a correct tricast. Some shrewd gamblers
realised that this was a great opportunity to make money. British
racecourses are all different. On some courses there can be an
advantage to a low draw and on others to a high draw. The punters
used this knowledge and made full cover bets with whatever draw
was favoured. The bonus gave them the edge to make it worthwhile.
The bookmakers retaliated by reducing the maximum bet but punters
simply spread their bets around different shops. Still losing
heavily the bookmakers withdrew the special offer.
Having the insight to spot something that no
one else has thought of can pay dividends. Joseph Hobson Jaggers
worked in a textile mill where wooden spindles were used to wind
the wool. He noticed that the spindles got worn. He realised that
the spindles of roulette wheels may also become worn resulting
in an imbalance of the wheel. In 1873, he took a trip to Monte
Carlo. He and six assistants recorded the numbers spun on roulette
for six days.
Analysis of the results showed that a set of
nine numbers on one of the wheels kept on winning. Jaggers bet
on this wheel and won $300,000 in four days play. The following
day he started to lose heavily. Then he realised that a scratch,
which he’d noticed on the ‘winning wheel’, was
missing. The casino operators had switched the wheel. He checked
round the other tables and found ‘his wheel’ back.
A further gambling session won him $450,000. The casino operators
reacted by changing the wheel’s design. A removable metal
fret was fitted to separate the numbers. At the end of a day’s
business the fret could be moved to a different position. Jaggers
decided to quit while he was ahead and netted a profit of $325,000
equivalent to around $3 million today. Unfortunately casinos
operators now ensure that roulette wheels are regularly serviced
and balanced.
Finding these great gambling opportunities can
be like looking for a four-leafed-clover. As Blaise Pascal showed
sometimes it’s a simple case of doing the maths. However
if maths is all Greek to you, you can still pray to Hermes for
luck.
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